Luck Vs. Probability

There is a 100% probability you can be successful, but only a 50% probability it will be given to you. If that is the case, why do so many people hold onto the process of inaction and live in a fantasy-based world where things will fall into their laps with no work or effort? The answer is that it is easier to dream than to take action. Anyone can want something in life. They can even complain if they do not get it, but is this path dealing more with luck, or are they ruling in the law of probability?

According to Leonard Mlodinow’s three laws of probability, the law of probability is as follows:

  1. The probability that two events will both occur can never be greater than the probability that each will occur individually.
  2. If two possible events, A and B, are independent, then the probability that both A and B will occur is equal to the product of their individual probabilities.
  3. If an event can have a number of different and distinct possible outcomes, A, B, C, and so on, then the probability that either A or B will occur is equal to the sum of the individual probabilities of A and B, and the sum of the probabilities of all the possible outcomes (A, B, C, and so on) is 1 (that is, 100%).

These common truth laws are more challenging to read than if I put them in simple knowledge, but this is the compass of what the law states. What I will be talking about today will be easier to digest than reading these laws and trying to make sense of them. The one thing I want you to take away from these laws is that there always is a possibility, no matter how slim.

One of the first steps toward the law of probability is to take action. I like to phrase this: if you need a job but haven’t filled out any job applications or shown interest in getting a job, the probability of you getting a job is slim. Not taking action and wanting something is luck in this sense, but the probability isn’t zero. So if the probability is not zero but low, how can we take good action to increase our chances?

As I said earlier, the first step is understanding the difference between luck and probability. The transition between the two can create more focus and action if used correctly. However, there is a difference in the approach regarding luck vs. probability. I already explained the law of probability, but what is luck? Is probability just the factor of any chance possible?

Luck is defined as the chance for success through good fortune or an unknown force. As you can see,  luck is not based on something that will come your way. For example, many people play the lotto and wish and hope they get lucky. They hope for the chance to be successful in the numbers they pick or for good fortune to bless them. Nonetheless, there is also a probability of winning the lotto jackpot, but it is extremely low; I mean, you have a higher probability of getting struck by lightning or eaten by a shark than you do of winning the lotto.

Though the chance for great fortune is low, millions of people play daily for their chance to win the lotto jackpot. This is akin to insanity and silent desperation within a person. A person will spend hundreds of dollars on lotto tickets and scratch-off games but will not open a ROTH IRA or invest in mutual funds. In a sense, we are taking our money and flushing it down the toilet because we are focused on the what if rather than what is for sure.

Putting your money in the stock market has risks, but you can develop a strategy if you know your risk tolerance. What gambling doesn’t do is allow for compound interest to take effect. If you gamble your money away and lose, you will find that the money you lost could have been used to create something more. Though I can continue to show you how people waste money, I want to tell you the secrets to luck and probability and how we should use them.

I focus on limiting beliefs that are set in the manner of truth. That means we can lie like I will win the lotto or say I will win at life. Most people wait to win the lotto to win at life, but that is a backward way of thinking. Instead, turn that around and say that if you win at life, you have already won the lotto. The thing about luck is that it leaves too much up for chance when I know you can be on purpose. Knowing your potential, why wouldn’t we act on that than wait for a chance?

As I said earlier, there is always a probability of a success rate. The issue with this is that people have so many blocks in their mindsets that they need help seeing where they are placing their focus. This means that they will choose to take less action for the sake of any achievement rather than to take more action for the greater probability of absolute success. This absolute success is more of a numbers game.

Think of it in terms of fitness; if you show up each day to the gym and get a good workout, the result is better health. The same can be true in any aspect of your life. If we take away the luck aspect and start to take more action, then the law of probability states that with each new PROPER action, we should be closer to our goal. If your goal is to be a millionaire, there is a path to that. You might have to take the long road, but it is a sure bet. Many people would rather base their chance on luck to get to that million-dollar value.

My recommendation is to treat these two words differently. You should understand probability and put into it something that will create growth even if there is a failure. This can mean you might go to the gym but gain weight because of a poor diet. My advice is to still go to the gym but understand the probability of reaching your goal with a poor diet. You cannot base your diet on luck. You’re not going to be like; I hope this carrot cake doesn’t fall into my mouth today.

Knowing that we are the curators of what can come into our life, we have to take responsibility for our actions. Yes, sometimes something might fall into your lap by chance, but luck is not a factor in the things that truly matter. I said that we all have the probability of being successful, and I mean that. YOu can reach great heights; you just have to know what steps to take to get there rather than applying little to no action, which is luck defined. If you are tired of trying to get lucky and want to create some meaningful probabilities in your life, then you will want to Get a Mindset Coach To help you along your journey.

 

Until then,

Michael Rearden

Founder of Reven Concepts

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